Even though the Group 1 races for the season are over and done with, we still have a good set of fields all across Australia this Saturday. This includes the listed Caloundra Cup on the Sunshine Coast and the Winter Cup at Rosehill Gardens.
There has been heavy rainfall over the past week all down the east coast and the ever so reliable weatherman has predicted more showers leading up until Saturday.
Consequently we are going to be looking at slow-heavy tracks in both Sydney and Brisbane.
Firstly, a key mistake we all make. We see the track listed as a heavy eight, we take out our pens and put a line straight through all the horses with a poor record on rain affected ground.
It comes to race day and a horse wins with no wet track form whatsoever, we sit there scratching our heads wondering why?
Let’s say for example a horse’s heavy track form reads three starts (0 wins, 0 places). What we can’t see from this figure is what type of race the horse was actually running in on those heavy tracks.
For all we know they could have been running in Group 1 races. It’s even a possibility the horse runs a slashing fourth last start in the wet which would be missed in that diminutive statistic.
Don’t get me wrong there are definitely ‘mudlarks’ out there who can only perform in the wet and also other ‘dry-trackers’ who don’t like to get their hooves wet.
All I am saying is that don’t rule out a horses chances just because his wet track form doesn’t read well.
My suggestion would be to base your selection on the horses current form and to keep in mind that the trainer and connections of a horse would scratch them from the race if they believe the horse has no hope of getting through the heavy ground.
Look I could be wrong , but just a bit of food for thought.
Now to this weekend’s racing.
Firstly, the Listed Caloundra Cup over 2400m at the Sunshine Coast. Only two horses in the last 28 years have won the race carrying more than 57kgs, with only one favourite winning within the last five years.
Shenzhou Steeds defied both these statistics last year by winning with 58kgs and as race favourite, although this year’s field looks stronger.
There is not too much pace in the field of 20 runners but looks as though Za Magic will lead with Voila Ici going forward from his wide draw.
My top pick Zennista (currently $5.50), lead the whole way in the Brisbane Cup and was only run down by Moriarty and Quintessential (both these horses are far superior compared to this field). She really impressed me with they way she kept fighting to the line to finish third.
As there is already a likely leader in Za Magic, I think Zennista will get the box seat behind the leaders and will be too hard to run down.
Shenzhou Steeds is the race favourite and the main danger at $4.50. He likes the ground wet but is on the day seven day back up which could be a query. He’s also failed to beat home Zennista in their last two meetings.
Next best is the Sydney galloper Kaypers who has been racing consistently of late behind the likes of Destinys Kiss and Speediness (minus the forget run two starts back when he raced too close to the speed).
He likes to sit back and flash home late, he is the best each way bet of the race.
So Zennista to take out the Caloundra Cup from Shenzou Steeds andamp; Kaypers.
Now the feature event in Sydney, the Winter Cup over 2400m.
A number of these horses look to be on their way to the Grafton Cup, so this could be a good form reference.
Destiny’s Kiss hasn’t run a bad race this preparation and has been progressing nicely the further he runs.
Even though this will be his first attempt over the mile and a half, I believe it won’t be of any hindrance and in my opinion will suit him to a tee. There looks to be no real pace in the race so hopefully he doesn’t get too far back (which he normally like to do).
Nevertheless I think he will still be too good here. Currently $2.70 which is slightly short, so maybe include him in a couple of multiples.
Fibrillation is back in grade after her last 3 starts at Group level, but is on the seven day back up.
The last time she was back in this grade she finished second to Kellini in the Listed JRA plate on a Heavy surface over 2000m in April (Kelinni would be $1.50 favourite for this race). She led that day and if she leads again here could be hard to run down. Best each-way bet of the race at $12.
Peal of Bells has been impressive winning his last two starts but the drop back in distance from 3200m to 2400m is a slight query as he might not have the sharpness required over the shorter trip. Although it wouldn’t shock me if he won here.
Destiny’s Kiss should be too good from Fibrillation and Peal of Bells.
Happy Racing
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