Welcome back for The Roar’s Friday preview, where we’ll be having a look at the main races in Melbourne and Sydney from now all the way through both carnivals.
The next three months are the most exciting for any racing fan, as we build up to the three majors and enjoy a host of quality racing along the way.
The Missile Stakes in Sydney, run as a Group 3 at weight-for-age over 1200m, is the race of the day.
You can easily make the case that there’ll be weaker Group 1 fields this season that what we’ll see tomorrow, especially if Hay List lines up as expected.
Rain Affair is the odds-on favourite, backed in from $1.80 to $1.65 with Sportsbet by punters who you love his chances on what is sure to be a heavy track. With a record of six wins and a second (which was at G1 WFA) from seven starts on slow or better, it might be an attractive price indeed.
He seemed to lose his way for a while after running in the 2011 Newmarket Handicap, but put any doubters back in their box with a strong Autumn, racing exclusively at the highest level and making the likes of Black Caviar, All Too Hard and Pierro bring their best work to beat him.
Based on these factors, and his nine length trial win leading into this, Rain Affair does look a good thing, but some interesting stats sprouted during the week by Daniel O’Sullivan on Twitter (@SmartformRacing) might see punters shy away from him.
According to O’Sullivan, since racing has resumed at Randwick, leaders have performed four times worse than previous history indicates, and only one horse has led and won with the rail inside 6m in 36 attempts.
The rail is at 5m tomorrow, and if recent history rings true, there’ll be some very nervous favourite punters inside the 200m mark.
Hay List’s glittering career needs no introduction, and he has staved off rumours of retirement since he was last seen, when he crossed the line 19 lengths behind his greatest rival in the TJ Smith earlier this year.
His best form is almost 18 months ago now, and he is very much the wildcard of tomorrow’s meeting.
Mic Mac is a rejuvenated galloper after a period in the wilderness. At his best, he is honest and talented, capable of mixing it with very good sprinters, as he did in this year’s Galaxy, carrying 58kg’s to a 1.5 length defeat.
The soft surface shouldn’t hold any fears to this horse when in form, as his last two starts have shown. If Hay List isn’t quite up to the mark and the rails bias plays against Rain Affair, it’s certain that Mic Mac will be there to capitalise.
The breeding barn probably awaits Mrs Onassis, who hasn’t been the same since her gallant Oakleigh Plate win, while the likes of Title and Atomic Force have probably left their best form behind them, and connections were no doubt hoping for a lesser field here than what has eventuated.
Centennial Park must wonder what he’s done wrong to be forced to race at Randwick once more, where his record is 10: 0-0-0. His first-up stats are very solid, but are sure to take a hit after tomorrow’s outing.
Rain Affair deserves to go on top, but a few dollars of my money will probably find its way onto Mic Mac at the odds. Hopefully Hay List shows something like his best, and we get to see more of him later on.
Selections
1.Rain Affair 2. Mic Mac 3.Hay List
The Aurie’s Star is one race that signals that Spring is just around the corner.
El Segundo was one that used to kick off his Cox Plate campaigns in this 1200m race down the Flemington straight, flying home from the tail with an eye-catching run, and more than one Cups bound horse has had its first clean out run in the event as well.
Riziz is a smart Adelaide galloper who might just be even better than that as he keeps on improving. Less than two lengths off Platelet in the Goodwood earlier this year, he’s since followed that up with two easy wins in $100,000 races.
Capable of sitting handy in the run, which he’ll surely do tomorrow, he’ll be the toughest to get past.
This will be the third spring in a row that Temple of Boom races in group company, and he’s proven himself worthy of the standard. He’s a superior straight horse when racing a level or two below the best, recording victory in the 2011 edition of this race, coupled with a win in the Gilgai and an enormous third in the Salinger that campaign.
Luckygray is the class horse of the field, and has been lumped with 60kg’s accordingly. The former Perth-trained galloper, winner of the Railway Stakes last December, had a couple of runs in unsuitable Group 1 sprint races during the Melbourne Autumn and thus barely made his presence felt.
He’s now with Robert Smerdon, and I’m not sure he deserves to be so short in the market with such a weighty impost against some smart sprinters.
He’ll be doing his best work late with an eye on future targets, and I’d be surprised if he could catch them all. He won’t be featuring in my quaddie.
Zamorar is a horse that shouldn’t escape anyone’s notice, but might start a point or two longer than he should by virtue of being from the anonymous David Bourne stable. He ran gamely in these sort of races last year, is in form again, and will benefit from the significant weight drop compared to his earlier outings this campaign.
Ferlax will be monitored by race fans who wonder if his Australian Guineas victory was a flash in the pan, and will provide some sort of x-factor in the race. Broken wouldn’t completely shock, as he’s been running well during the winter, but he’d need to find a length or two.
This looks a race in three, and we shouldn’t need to go any wider than that. Riziz goes on top due to the face he should be ahead of the other two in the run.
Selections
1.Riziz 2. Zamorar 3.Temple of Boom
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