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Puissance de Lune (PDL) kicked off his claims to be the superstar of the spring in the P.B Lawrence at Caulfield three weeks ago, but was trumped by Atlantic Jewel in the Memsie Stakes last Saturday.
He now gets his chance to respond in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
PDL is certainly taking the path less travelled when it comes to seeking Melbourne Cup glory, as it’s been over 40 years since the winner of the Makybe Diva (formerly Craiglee) has gone on to take out the race that stops our nation, and almost 20 years since the Cup winner has even run in the race.
In fact, when you take into account his first-up win in the Lawrence, PDL is taking the path never travelled, as the victor in that race has never won the big one in the same preparation.
With Atlantic Jewel heading to the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley next week, it appears the earliest the two could meet is in the Turnbull Stakes on the first Saturday in October.
But, first things first, is the Makybe Diva at PDL’s mercy as his even money price suggests?
He certainly deserves warm-to-hot favouritism after his impressive eye-catching first-up win against handy but not exactly elite gallopers.
Ajeeb and Second Effort filled the placings about a length behind him in the Lawrence, and Atlantic Jewel was able to beat them by five in the Memsie. Admittedly, the circumstances of each race were entirely different, and the debate over which win had more merit is a worthy one.
There look to be half a dozen horses who could challenge PDL for victory tomorrow, none of whom would surprise.
Manighar has gone from being the most dependable, stand-out weight-for-age horse in the country to one of frustrating inconsistency. He’s had a Group 3 win and a second in this race last year to his credit when first-up over a mile under Peter Moody, but has mixed his form over the last year.
His best run in the last twelve months was when finishing a close-up fourth to Pierro over 1500m in the George Ryder earlier in 2013. Behind him that day was Veyron, who blew the Warwick Stakes wide open a fortnight ago, as well as subsequent G1 WFA winner Reliable Man, and G1 sprinter/milers Happy Trails and Rebel Dane. His best is good enough to trouble the favourite, and he’s drawn to perfection.
Sea Moon is the most intriguing runner of the day, with many suggesting he could be the best international horse to run in this country, a hefty boom indeed. A three length win over Melbourne and Caulfield Cups winner Dunaden is enough to catch the attention of every racing fan in Australia.
Lloyd Williams horses tend to either run brilliantly or flop badly when seen for the first time, and the odds suggest that Sea Moon will be a case of the former. Unlike most imports, he is actually a winner over a mile, albeit in maiden class.
December Draw is another former import which, like Manighar, has gone from an uber-consistent performer (five wins and a second from his first six runs in Australia), to one with a chequered recent history. He’s finished at the tail of the field in four of his last six appearances, mixing two Caulfield Cup failures with two placings at Group 1 level.
He’s a dead-set Flemington horse however, and also loves a track with the cut out of it. He may find himself leading in a race devoid of obvious speed, and with the Caulfield Cup off his agenda this year, he may be forward enough to look the winner at some stage.
Mr Moet, Ethiopia and Foreteller will all run around at good double-figure odds, but each has genuine clams.
Mr Moet won the 1600m Group 1 Railway Stakes first-up last November after a couple of trials, and he’s had three this time in to ready him for this tougher task, but seems primed to win. Beaten less than a length at WFA by All Too Hard over seven furlongs suggests he’s up to this.
Ethiopia is a quality horse about to have only his 10th start. If he’s progressed as he should have from last spring when he was fourth in the Cox Plate, he’ll be featuring in some big races down the track, and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Foreteller is perennially underrated, but produced one of the better runs out of Veyron’s Warwick Stakes. Most pundits expected it to be a deep form race, and tomorrow is the first time we’ll get to assess the runners and see how that form will hold up.
All three of these horses can get too far back in their races, opening themselves up to bad luck or leaving themselves with too much to do. Each has a tricky barrier to contend with, so it will be interesting to see if their riders show any positivity from the gates.
Waldpark and Masked Marvel are another couple of imported wild cards that it may pay to keep an eye on for future events.
I’m not going to tip against PDL again after being burnt last time, but I’ll be having something on Mr Moet as the best outsider, and finding room for four or five in my quaddie.
Selections
1.Puissance de Lune
2.Mr Moet
3.Sea Moon
4.Manighar
Sydney has their own WFA race over 1600m on tomorrow, albeit at Group 2 level, the Chelmsford Stakes at Randwick.
The aforementioned Warwick Stakes is the key lead-up race in assessing this field. Rain Affair took them along at a frightful clip, and while he fatigued at the 200m and Streama got tired in the shadows of the post, Veyron was able to be the last horse standing.
Most others in the field could only hold their position to the line, but ran well while doing so. This time there’s no obvious speed engaged at all, so this race will be a different beast altogether.
Veyron will be tough to beat again, and the obvious challengers are Beaten Up, Bayrir and Metal Bender, while Hawkspur and Lightinthenite wouldn’t surprise. Glencadam Gold is the interesting runner of the field, and could spring a major surprise if he recaptures his 2012 form.
Elsewhere around the traps there are some cracking three year old races.
Cauthen and Long John headline the Henry Bucks Stakes as they continue their Caulfield Guineas preparations. The former looks like he’ll eat up the long Flemington straight, while the latter is a four length Listed winner there already over 1400m.
Gregers is the current Thousand Guineas favourite, and will take on the boys for the first time as a three year old in the Danehill Stakes. It pays to be wary of speedy fillies down the straight, sometimes they just need that corner to ping off.
Kiss a Rose is another filly that is all class, and is one of the unbeaten brigade along with Safeguard, who was Fast ‘N’ Rocking’s conqueror first-up. Il Cavallo was a black booker out of the Vain Stakes, and he’ll be carrying my money at around the $15 mark.
Guelph will have all eyes on her in the Furious Stakes in Sydney, coming back from a spell after finishing last campaign with two Group 1 victories, storming over the top of the Sires Produce and Champagne fields. Will she track a path to the Cox Plate?
Don’t forget Rebel Dane down the straight in the Bobbie Lewis, looking to earn the mantle of Australia’s best sprinter this preparation. The Bobbie Lewis is normally a great form race, so be sure to follow the first half dozen home.
If you’re looking to “get out” late in the day, you can do a lot worse than land on one of my favourite horses, Oasis Bloom, at around the $16 mark in the Let’s Elope.
What a day it promises to be. Big fields. Quality animals. Great value. And we could be seeing a handful of the next genuine superstars of the turf. Bring it on.