All the best to everyone after the big wet. Hopefully you’re dry and you got away safely.
It’s Slipper Day (again) this Saturday after the postponement, and the improving conditions make things a little bit tricky, with some horses coming right into calculations on a track that should get into the slow range.
Organisers have done their bit too by extending nominations, which has changed a few scenarios.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 408 units
Return: 530.3 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 2 Doubtland (two units)
I’m still pretty bullish about Doubtland. His win second-up last prep at Flemington and his four-length win as a two-year-old on heavy going put him right in the mix. Isotope might be better suited with the track slightly better. On The Lead maybe, leaving Private Eye at this level.
Race 2 – 10 Dadoozdart (two units)
I am liking Dadoozdart more and more. He’s crying out for 2400 metres and has interesting ties to Nickajack Cave (and Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment) from their UK days. The wetter the better for him. He’s cherry ripe for this and Team Hawkes can take the first two of the day.
Race 3 – 9 Attention Run or 16 Icebath (one unit)
I’m presuming Icebath doesn’t make the final field. She looks the play here, although it’s a slight risk having her first go at the distance in the wet going. Attention Run is proving first-up over a trip and is the right price. No to Polly Grey.
Race 4 – 2 Sir Dragonet (one unit)
What a difference a week makes! It’s a bit speculative, but getting double figures about Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet at the same trip has me intrigued. Addeybb and Verry Elleegant are obviously suited. Collette is suited in the conditions but might lack the class of the others. Miami Bound is a Group 1 winner and loves the extra trip and the mud. She is up to this level but mixes her form.
Race 5 – 4 Milford (one unit)
A couple of newbies make things interesting in the Derby preview. Milford comes across the ditch having been stiff in their Derby. He’s big odds, but has fitness on his side and will relish the conditions.
Race 6 – 1 Kolding (one unit)
The improving track brings Kolding right into this. He has a class edge on this field at weight-for-age and is the right price at 5/1. Avilius is still a threat. Funstar comes right into now after I wrote her off last week in a bog, and even horses like Dreamforce could be competitive if things fall their way. It’s a good contest.
Race 7: Golden Slipper – 8 Stay Inside (one unit)
Stay Inside shapes to be in a nice spot in the Slipper. If he can get clear and show similar acceleration to his win in the Pierro, he’ll go very, very close. With O’President scratched, the challengers are Four Moves Ahead and Anamoe. Profiteer will go around without me but is better suited this week, and I give Shaquero a chance – he’s overs at 30/1.
Race 8 – Easy Eddie (one unit)
This is a great edition of the Galaxy. I’ve moved around a few times doing the numbers for this and landed with Easy Eddie. He finished third in this race two years ago on a heavy track behind Nature Strip and Pierata, and comes into this with similar form and is slightly better off comparatively at the weights. I’m very scared of Wild Ruler. He’s a potential superstar who is beautifully in this for Team Snowden. It is the same story with Tailleur, although the track improvement helps others. Jonker goes in the quaddie. What a race.
Race 9 – 12 Emanate (two units)
Emanate is a clear top pick to finish the day. She’s drawn poorly but by the last race I expect the track to be a bit choppy and the outside might be the place to be. Her win two starts back was class, and her record on this sort of surface is top notch. Written Beauty is the danger. She was backed to beat Nature Strip and Eduardo last time, and comes back to mares class in this.
Good luck one and all. It shapes up as a fantastic Slipper day. Please leave your comments and tips below with your thoughts across the day.