Roar Guru
Joined August 2014
91.4k
Views
116
Published
308
Comments
Aiming to be the best horse analyst in the country! Keen student of times (Comparative), and any form angle that can produce a profit.
Published
Comments
Race 8 at Eagle Farm on Saturday (3.17pm AEST) is the Tattersalls Club Tiara run at a distance o 1400m. This excellent Fillies and…
Queensland racing switches its gaze to the provincial circuit at Bundamba in Ipswich this Saturday, for the running of the Ipswich Cup, Eyeliner Stakes…
Race 9 at Eagle Farm on Saturday (3:40pm AEST) is the time honoured 1400m Group 1 Sprint known as the Stradbroke Handicap, first staged…
The much-anticipated return of Eagle Farm racecourse is finally upon us, headlined by the Queensland Oaks for three-year-old fillies. Unfortunately, the weather gods haven't…
Race 7 at Doomben on Saturday (4.00pm AEST) sees the running of the 2016 Doomben 10000 at a distance of 1350m. Originally named the…
The Goodwood is Race 7 (4.20pm AEST) at Morphettville on Saturday run over a distance of 1200m. It is a famous old Sprint race…
Race 7 at Doomben on Saturday (4.06pm AEST) is the BTC Cup run over a distance of 1200m. It is a key lead up…
Scone is often described as the horse racing capital of Australia; horse breeding haven where many of Australia's best studs are located. It conducts…
The Hollindale Stakes is Race 7 at the Gold Coast on Saturday, run at 3.40pm. It signals the start of the Winter Carnival in…
The title of Australasia's best three-year-old is still up for grabs with all eight of the Group 1 three-year-old staying classics, here and across…
Race 7 at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) on Sunday (5.30pm AEST) is the Chairmans Sprint Prize, an International Group 1 1200m race which is…
Race 8 at Caulfield on Saturday (4.35pm AEST) is the Listed Bel Esprit (Sire of Black Caviar) Stakes over a distance of 1100m. It…
Race 7 at Randwick on Saturday (3.45pm AEST) is the Weight For Age All Aged Stakes run over a distance of 1400m. This is…
Race 6 at Randwick on Saturday (2.35pm AEST) is the time honoured Australian Oaks for three year old fillies, formerly known as the AJC…
Race 9 at Randwick on Saturday (5.10pm AEDT) sees the running of the 2016 Doncaster Mile. It certainly earns it's title as 'time honoured'…
What a grand old race this is! It dates back to 1925, where the inaugural race was won by a horse called Night Patrol,…
Let me first say I'm no expert on horse breeding, but the death of the Champion Irish sire High Chaparral in late 2014 was…
The world's richest two year old race is here again, to be staged as Rosehill Gardens at Rosehill on Saturday (Race 7 at 4.30pm…
Race 7 at Rosehill on Saturday (4.10pm, AEDT) is the Coolmore Classic. It is a Group 1 fillies and mares race first staged in…
Race 7 at Flemington on Saturday (4.30pm AEDT) is the Group 1 Australian Guineas a 1600m race for three year olds. I doubt we…
Yes KV no worries. Sorry I didn’t see you message.
A few bonus points for the mares in this race it seems. 6 of the last 13 winners now and there was no runner last year so. Not sure about some of the other years in this study either.
Given there presence would make up no more than 20% (at a guess) a 50% strike rate is a at least a little remarkable.
The Matrix might make a return in the Hollindale Stakes which I think is run this coming Saturday.
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
A basic analysis program? Which 5 stats? I like the sound of it though. Just need to find someone offering $78 about Malaguerra today!
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
I also agree with your evaluation of All Ups there KV. I rarely bother with Quaddies and don’t often go beyond a 3 leg Multi. A Treble is a favoured Multi of mine (TAB doesn’t utilise them), I don’t spend a lot on them and try to ensure I get the first 2 legs. I never take more than two in the last leg and 90% of the time try and single one out at odds. The theory is to take advantage of the pools ,and get overs in that final leg where the vast majority of punters will look to play safe on the favourite runners. I don’t get them too often, but they are worthwhile when I do.
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
Very good KV will look forward to that. Re Vergara I failed to make mention of her mainly because I didn’t see her as a place chance. But she has done me a favour or two in the past on wet tracks at good prices. She ran very well.
The Matrix was only 12 months ago mate. In fact I got the Doncaster winner Kermadec with it. It wasn’t so much the formatting to the site (it actually depended on who processed it), more a change of direction. I’ve really moved away from just straight historical study and tried to get more into the hard analysis of most (or all) of the runners, and then try to assess what is the value.
No doubt Press Statement would sit atop that matrix in this race so, I’m not sure the time spent doing one adds much to the final analysis. Analytically BHB rates highly here and his odds are better than they should be. Kermadec similarly.
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
Good point Nathan. I try to stay out of political commentary though.
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
I doubt those other historical perspectives have anything to do with me KV. My influence doesn’t spread very far at all.
All Aged Stakes 2016 preview and tips
There was PREDATOR too Jack. Beaten less than 3L in that Derby and horrible in the Tulloch Stakes here, finished a mile back. Something tells me Tavago should have won that Derby easily. Got knocked around at the start and didn’t get into a prominent position in the race.
Australian Oaks 2016 preview and tips
Interesting too Nathan that the NZ Derby winner Rangipo is out of a Zabeel dam too. That’s four Derbies in the past 5 months with a Zabeel relative on the mothers side. Not quite the same with the fillies but doesn’t augur too badly for HAPPY HANNAH in the Oaks this weekend. She looks hard to beat anyway on her run in the Vinery.
Tavistock filling the void left by High Chaparral
Thanks Nathan. It’s going to be interesting to see how Hasselhoof comes up in the Spring, the only one of the 4 mentioned not to yet win a Group 1 at 2000m or beyond. He was disappointing in Sydney but maybe he is looking for further and he could excel at 2400m+?
I read an article on Tavago a week or so ago with his trainer saying that he wasn’t the finished article yet and would be better in 6-12 moths time. Then there were murmurs the NZ colts might need a dry track. Didn’t exactly fill me with confidence but both (especially the winner) were over the odds.
Good point re SYT, Pierro & ATH. Will be interesting to see their impact in the next couple of seasons.
Tavistock filling the void left by High Chaparral
Absolute star she is but I do question just why she needed to run in that race?
Surely the Queen Eliizabeth was the goal, and she should win that too, but was the Doncaster overtaxing her unnecessarily?
Doncaster Mile: Winx blows them away again to win ninth straight
Silly me didn’t take that $101 Tavago. Maybe that was the easiest Group 1 win by a $50 shot ever?
Tavistock filling the void left by High Chaparral
All good KV. Yes my mistake with F & H. I thought I’d find something new to add to last years historical data. Doh!
Re the jockey Glen Boss I think is significant as he has been so prolific in this very race and that is because he generally gets the pick of the lighter weighted in form horses which often win. The Epsom nowadays is no longer a true handicap so jockey stats there are largely irrelevant now.
Doncaster Mile 2016: A historical and analytical preview
The pace was hot in the George Ryder Adam? I think quite the opposite. Check the time Azkadellia ran in comparison a week prior in the Coolmore Classic.
Does Delectation require a wet track? Good roughie at $21 because he is a funny horse who will strike form suddenly.
Telperion had Blinkers on too in the Slipper. That was the reason for his improvement. Omei Rose reminded me of Octagonal last start the way she finished off.
Watch the last 2 wins of Clearly Innocent (R4). Absolutely breathtaking effort last start when back 300m in distance. That shouldn’t have suited.
Saturday sure things: Championships Day 1
Maybe so Peeeko but she has to give considerable weight to some others in a race like this. I can’t figure out how Turn Me Loose has to give Volkstok 4.5kg, Surely if this race was in NZ they’d be similarly weighted? VS has won more Group 1 races than he has.
Doncaster Mile 2016: A historical and analytical preview
Going for 9 in a row and she will get all the publicity.
Doncaster Mile 2016: A historical and analytical preview
I’m a big fan of the horse Tristan and backed him last start. Now he has to give the likes of Happy Clapper and First Seal weight and both beat him home in the Ryder. Then there is Azkedellia and a few others getting a lot of weight from him. He might prove hard to beat if he can get his own way in front. Wouldn’t be the first time Murray Baker has won a Group 1 in such circumstances. Last year Mongolian Khan awful in the Rosehill Guineas, won the Derby at this next outing.
Doncaster Mile 2016: A historical and analytical preview
He probably should rate in the top dozen or so because he has won overseas. Despite his overall consistency he has put in the odd shocker or two so I can’t warm to him being one of our best ever. I think people underrate Chautauqua a little. He got beaten in a handicap last start which is no disgrace. Like Buffering he will be competitive anywhere in the world atm but I’d rate him the better sprinter.
Takeover Target number two for me but Miss Andretti not too far behind. I’m only rating those two so highly because they also won here and overseas.
Hareeba one of the best I have ever seen. He could run some brutally good times. Broke the track record at M/Valley 1200m by 3 seconds in one race.
Where does Buffering sit in the standings?
Like I say Thomas I’m not breeding expert but I’d say it’s pretty positive. Really a great family. Great Grandmother was Ancient Song who was from memory transferred from Sydney to Peter Moody who then won a Salinger with her down the straight. Really doesn’t seem that long ago.
There is a mix of speed and stamina there in the pedigree of Preferment. I must say I doubted him a bit at WFA 2400m. Whether he can extend to 3200m is still a bit dubious.
Interesting too that two of his siblings are very capable on wet tracks-Loophole and Rezoned. The latter his full sister won a 2500m on a wet track at Group 3 level Morphettville. He doesn’t seem to like it too wet and generally speaking the Flying Spur breed (mothers sire) don’t really like it.
He should throw a good stayer up to 2400m, and if you could breed him with a European long distance staying mare, or Makybe Diva the 3200m world could be your oyster! Is She’s Archie still around?
Tavistock filling the void left by High Chaparral
Superb Razzar thanks. Comments like that make it all the more worthwhile… for me. Nailing great overs is what it’s all about, and you are right that it does afford you the losses. You just have to stick solid to your principles.
William Reid Stakes 2016: Historical perspective
Thanks Tomas. Was a nice result. Flamberge one of the most overpriced G1 winners of all time. He should have been $6 at best being a dual G1 winner who was suited at the weights. At WFA there looked to be 5 horses weighted to win that race and they have finished top 4. I haven’t watched the replay yet but Lucky Hussler was apparently unlucky so he too should have been up there. Good to see a Group1 race work out logically, and the value play coming up trumps. Doesn’t happen often enough.
William Reid Stakes 2016: Historical perspective
Right okay Cam. To be honest I never even gave that a thought. Very good point and makes it more likely that the two Melbourne horses can win. Thanks for the plaudits.
Golden Slipper 2016: Full preview, historical view, and tips
Well done mate. super stuff. Had she drawn a better barrier she was right in the historical mix. Only reason I had to leave her out but things panned out perfectly. Another horse that has failed to win beyond 1400m until now.
Coolmore Classic 2016: A historical preview
Don’t disagree with anything you say there Razzar except that Zanbagh is weighted to beat Peeping from last meeting. Might not mean a lot if the pace is moderate though and being a serious Group 1 race.
Coolmore Classic 2016: A historical preview
Managed to pick the same 3 in Trifecta again Cam. Not sure that is a good thing though!
Australian Cup and Newmarket Handicap: Group 1 preview and tips
Good summation Razzar.
Bel Esprit Stakes 2016 preview and tips